vs Last Month
−0.05 pts
Modest cooling. Each tenth matters to the Fed.
The Fed's Preferred Gauge
Today's Core PCE
2.80
%
-0.05 pts
vs. last month (0.00%)
Past 12 months
Range 2.65 – 3.25
Fed Target2.0%
vs Last Year-0.35
Above target+0.80 pts
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge ticked down to 2.80% — within striking distance of the 2% target. Bond markets have already priced two cuts by year-end; this print keeps that path live.
Historical trend
Monthly year-over-year Core PCE. End-of-month BEA release.
Source: FRED · PCEPILFE · Year-over-year % change.
The long view: since 1960
Sixty-six years of the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
Peak 10.20% · June 1980
Trough 0.90% · April 2015
Today 2.80% · May 30, 2026
How today stacks up
Today's 2.80% Core PCE in context.
vs Last Year
−0.35 pts
Continued disinflation — but pace has slowed in 2025–26.
5-Year Average
3.55%
Includes 2022 surge. Today is 75 bps below the average.
vs Fed Target
+0.80 pts
Last leg from ~3% to 2% historically takes 18–24 months.
Use this number
Tools for navigating Fed policy shifts.
About Core PCE
Core PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, excluding food and energy, published monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the single most important inflation number for U.S. monetary policy — the Federal Reserve's official 2% inflation target is defined on this series, not on the more-cited CPI. When you hear FOMC members reference "our 2% goal," they mean this number.
Why the Fed prefers PCE over CPI
Three reasons. First, PCE uses chain-weighted basket calculations that update consumption shares more frequently, capturing how people substitute when prices change (e.g., shifting from beef to chicken when beef gets expensive). Second, PCE has a broader scope — it includes employer-paid healthcare and goods consumed by nonprofits, which CPI doesn't. Third, PCE puts less weight on shelter (16% vs 33% in Core CPI), making it less distorted by the lagging owners'-equivalent-rent methodology.
What today's reading means for rates
At 2.80%, Core PCE is roughly 80 basis points above target and on a slow downward path. Markets currently price the federal funds rate falling to ~3.75% by year-end, contingent on Core PCE continuing to drift toward 2.5% over the next two quarterly readings. A meaningful re-acceleration (above 3.1%) would likely pause the easing cycle; a faster decline (toward 2.3%) would accelerate it. Either move directly affects mortgage rates, savings yields, and how aggressively bond markets price duration risk.
Related trackers
Other live numbers that move with — or against — this one.
Frequently asked
What this number means, and what it doesn't.
The FOMC formally adopted 2% Core PCE as its inflation target in January 2012. The series is broader and more comprehensive than CPI, with quicker basket reweighting and fewer methodological quirks (especially around shelter). The Fed has stuck with PCE through cycle after cycle even though most consumers know inflation through the CPI headline.
PCE is calculated from aggregate U.S. consumer spending data (national accounts), while CPI is calculated from a household survey of spending patterns. PCE includes things consumers don't pay for directly (employer-paid health insurance, nonprofit-provided services) and reweights its basket continuously. CPI uses fixed weights for two-year periods. PCE typically runs 0.2–0.4 points below CPI for the same time period.
The BEA publishes the Personal Income and Outlays report (which contains PCE inflation) on the last business day of each month at 8:30 AM ET. The released figure covers data from two months prior — May data published in late June, etc. The release calendar is published a year in advance at bea.gov.
Almost always, yes. The gap usually runs 20–50 basis points and reflects mostly the different weight on shelter (PCE: 16%, CPI: 33%) plus the chained vs fixed-weight methodology. In rare periods (mid-2007, briefly in 2021) the gap narrows to near zero, but Core PCE running above Core CPI for a sustained period is historically unusual.
Because it's the Fed's target. The 30-year bond market, mortgage rates, and Fed-funds futures all reprice when Core PCE prints surprise the consensus by 0.1 points or more. Headline CPI moves equity markets more (because it's the consumer-facing story), but Core PCE moves the yield curve more.
Methodology
Source
Pulled from FRED · PCEPILFE and cached on the EvvyTools server.
Update schedule
Refreshed automatically by our cron whenever the upstream source publishes a new value. Historical values are not revised after publication.
How we compute
Display value is the raw published number, unrounded. Comparison stats use the closest available reference date. We never edit the underlying data.