vs Last Month
+0.10 pts
Slow climb continues.
U.S. Unemployment Rate
U-3 · Monthly BLS
4.10%
+0.10 pts vs. last month
Past 12 monthsRange 3.65 – 4.15
vs Last Year+0.30
5-Yr Avg4.05%
2020 Peak14.7%
U-3 ticked up to 4.10% — still historically low, but the direction has changed. The Sahm Rule recession indicator has been active since mid-2024. Watching whether the rise continues or stabilizes.
Historical trend
Monthly BLS Employment Situation.
Source: FRED · UNRATE
The long view: since 1948
Eighty years of U.S. labor market cycles.
Peak 14.7% · April 2020Trough 3.4% · 2023Today 4.10%
How today stacks up
vs Last Year
+0.30 pts
Direction has clearly turned.
5-Yr Avg
4.05%
Today right at average.
Full Employment
~4.0–4.5%
Today at the edge of NAIRU.
Use this data
Tools for career and financial planning.
About the U.S. Unemployment Rate
The U-3 unemployment rate is the most-cited measure of U.S. labor market health. It's computed monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics from the Current Population Survey (CPS) — a survey of about 60,000 households. The rate is the share of the civilian labor force that is unemployed but actively seeking work. People who have given up looking ("discouraged workers") are not counted in U-3 but appear in broader measures like U-6.
Why this number drives the Fed
The Fed has a "dual mandate" — stable prices AND maximum employment. The unemployment rate is the most direct measure of the second half. When unemployment is rising, the Fed cuts. When it's falling and inflation is high, the Fed hikes. Historically, the unemployment rate rarely climbs slowly — once it starts rising, it usually accelerates rapidly into recession territory (the "Sahm Rule" — 0.5pp increase from the trough means recession ~90% of the time).
Reading this chart
The 2020 COVID spike to 14.7% was the highest reading since the Great Depression. The 2022–24 recovery brought it to 3.4% — near a 50-year low. Today's 4.10% has climbed 0.30 from a year ago — still historically low, but the direction has changed. The Sahm Rule indicator (3-month moving average vs trough) has been flashing yellow since mid-2024. Recession-watchers are now monitoring for whether the rise continues or stabilizes.
Related trackers
Other live numbers that move with — or against — this one.
Frequently asked
What this number means, and what it doesn't.
U-3 is the headline rate — only counts people unemployed and actively job-searching. U-6 adds "discouraged workers" who've given up and "marginally attached" workers who want a job but aren't actively searching. U-6 is typically 3–5pp higher than U-3.
BLS releases the Employment Situation report on the first Friday of each month at 8:30 AM ET. It includes the unemployment rate, nonfarm payrolls, and average hourly earnings — three of the most market-moving data points each month.
Economist Claudia Sahm's observation: when the 3-month moving average of U-3 rises 0.5 percentage points above its 12-month low, the U.S. is in (or imminently entering) a recession. The rule has been correct for every U.S. recession since 1970. It triggered in mid-2024 and is still active.
Economists estimate U-3 at full employment (NAIRU) is somewhere around 4.0–4.5% — meaning today's 4.10% is essentially at full employment. Below that, wage pressure typically builds. Above that, slack in the labor market grows.
Methodology
Source
Pulled from FRED · UNRATE and cached on the EvvyTools server.
Update schedule
Refreshed automatically by our cron whenever the upstream source publishes a new value. Historical values are not revised after publication.
How we compute
Display value is the raw published number, unrounded. Comparison stats use the closest available reference date. We never edit the underlying data.