Today's Core CPI
Core inflation eased to 3.40%, the lowest reading since spring 2024 — but still 140 basis points above the Fed's preferred level. With shelter doing most of the lifting, the last leg to 2% will be the hardest.
Historical trend
Monthly year-over-year core inflation. Mid-month BLS release.
Source: FRED · CPILFESL · Year-over-year % change.
The long view: since 1958
Sixty-eight years of core inflation. The 70s/80s tower above everything else.
How today stacks up
Today's 3.40% core in context.
Tools for navigating sticky inflation.
About Core CPI
Core CPI is the year-over-year percent change in the Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy. Stripping out those two volatile categories — gasoline can swing 30% in a quarter, grocery prices move with weather and supply shocks — produces a steadier read on the underlying inflation trend. Fed officials, bond traders, and Wall Street economists watch this number far more closely than headline CPI because it's a cleaner signal of where inflation is actually headed.
Why core inflation usually lags
The big categories driving Core CPI are shelter (about 40% of the index, including owners' equivalent rent), medical care, and services ex energy. These prices are "sticky" — landlords reprice leases once a year, insurance contracts renew annually, wage-driven services adjust slowly. So when inflation surges, core lags headline upward; when inflation falls, core takes longer to come down. That lag is why the Fed kept rates elevated through 2024–25 even after headline inflation fell to the low 3s — core was still stuck near 3.5%.
What today's core reading means
At 3.40%, core inflation is roughly 90 basis points above where it was running pre-pandemic (2.2% average from 2010–19). The "last mile" — from ~3.5% down to the Fed's 2% target — has historically taken multiple years in disinflation cycles. Markets are currently pricing two rate cuts in the next twelve months, contingent on this number drifting lower; a re-acceleration above 3.7% would likely pause that easing path.
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Frequently asked
What this number means, and what it doesn't.
Methodology
Source
Pulled from FRED · CPILFESL and cached on the EvvyTools server.
Update schedule
Refreshed automatically by our cron whenever the upstream source publishes a new value. Historical values are not revised after publication.
How we compute
Display value is the raw published number, unrounded. Comparison stats use the closest available reference date. We never edit the underlying data.