vs Last Week
+0.04 pts
Curve continues steepening.
Yield Curve Spread (10Y – 2Y)
U.S. Treasury · The Recession Indicator
+0.50pp
+0.02 pts vs. yesterday
Past 12 monthsUn-inverted Sept 2024
10Y Yield4.42%
2Y Yield3.92%
StatusNormal
The curve has steepened by 95 bps over the past year, exiting the longest inversion in modern history (July 2022 – Sept 2024). Historically, recessions often follow within 6–18 months of un-inversion.
Historical trend
Negative readings = inverted curve.
Source: FRED · T10Y2Y
The long view: since 1976
Every U.S. recession since 1955 has been preceded by an inversion.
Steepest 2.86pp · 2010Deepest Inversion −2.40pp · 1980Today +0.50pp
How today stacks up
vs Last Year
+0.95 pts
From −0.45pp inversion to +0.50pp normal.
5-Yr Avg
−0.15pp
Skewed by 2022–24 inversion.
Last Recession
2020
COVID. Curve inverted ~6 months prior.
Use this signal
Tools for recession-aware planning.
About the Yield Curve Spread (10Y – 2Y)
This tracker shows the difference between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields — the most-watched "yield curve" metric on Wall Street. A positive spread means the curve is upward-sloping (longer-term yields above shorter-term ones), the normal state. A negative spread (curve "inversion") means short-term yields exceed long-term yields — a rare condition that has historically predicted recessions.
Why inversion predicts recessions
Since 1955, every U.S. recession has been preceded by a 10Y/2Y inversion, with a lead time of 6 to 24 months. The intuition: when investors expect aggressive Fed rate cuts (because they expect a recession), they buy long-term Treasuries to lock in current yields — pushing long yields down. Meanwhile, short-term yields stay anchored to the still-high Fed funds rate. Result: the curve inverts.
Reading this chart
The curve inverted in July 2022 and stayed inverted for over two years — the longest inversion in modern history. It un-inverted (returned to positive) in September 2024 and has been steepening since. Today's +0.50 reading is a normal upward-sloping curve. Historically, the inversion-to-recession transition often happens after the curve un-inverts and starts steepening — which is happening now.
Related trackers
Other live numbers that move with — or against — this one.
Frequently asked
What this number means, and what it doesn't.
One basis point = 0.01 percentage point. The spread of 0.50pp = 50 basis points. Bond traders quote in basis points to avoid decimal confusion.
Every recession since 1955 has been preceded by an inversion, but not every inversion has been followed by a recession (one false positive in the mid-1960s). The signal is widely regarded as reliable but not perfect.
When the Fed starts cutting (or even just signals cuts), short-term yields fall fast. Long yields fall too but more slowly. Result: the curve steepens. Historically, by the time the curve un-inverts and steepens, the recession is often just months away.
The 3-month/10-year spread (T10Y3M) is another classic. The 5s30s and 2s10s are common at the long end. Each has its own predictive history, but 10Y-2Y is the most cited.
Methodology
Source
Pulled from FRED · T10Y2Y and cached on the EvvyTools server.
Update schedule
Refreshed automatically by our cron whenever the upstream source publishes a new value. Historical values are not revised after publication.
How we compute
Display value is the raw published number, unrounded. Comparison stats use the closest available reference date. We never edit the underlying data.