vs Last Month
±0.00
Flat. Both inputs roughly unchanged.
Inflation + Unemployment · YoY
U.S. Misery Index
7.20
±0.00
vs. last month (0.00)
Past 12 months
6.95 – 7.55
Inflation3.10%
Unemployment4.10%
1980 Peak21.98
The Misery Index sits at 7.20 — still well below the 12.66 peak of mid-2022, but elevated vs. the 2017–19 era when it averaged 6.0. The original "how the economy feels" gauge, invented by Arthur Okun in the 60s, is still the simplest single number to read.
Historical trend
Monthly · sum of CPI YoY + U-3 unemployment.
Source: FRED graph · CPIAUCSL + UNRATE
The long view: since 1948
Every spike maps to a real economic crisis.
Peak 21.98 · June 1980
Trough 2.97 · July 1953
Today 7.20 · May 13, 2026
How today stacks up
vs Last Year
−0.30
Modest improvement from 7.50 a year ago.
5-Year Average
8.20
Includes 2022 surge. Today is 1 pt below.
All-Time Range
3.0–22.0
Today is in the lower-middle of the 75-year range.
Use this number
Tools for navigating inflation + job uncertainty.
About the U.S. Misery Index
The Misery Index is the simplest, most-cited "how the economy feels" indicator ever invented. Coined by economist Arthur Okun in the 1970s as an advisor to President Lyndon Johnson, it adds two of the most personally felt numbers a household experiences: the unemployment rate (jobs available) and the inflation rate (cost of living). Today's 7.20 = 3.10% inflation + 4.10% unemployment.
Why the index endures
Economists have proposed fancier composite indices for half a century — none has displaced the Misery Index for one reason: both inputs hurt, and both hurt households directly. Inflation erodes paychecks; unemployment eliminates them. Adding the two captures the dual pain of "stuff costs more AND it's harder to earn money," which is exactly the felt experience that drives presidential approval ratings, consumer confidence surveys, and ballot-box decisions. The index's correlation with the incumbent's vote share in U.S. presidential elections is remarkably tight.
Reading today's number
The all-time high — 21.98 in June 1980 — reflected stagflation at its peak (14% inflation + 8% unemployment under Carter, driving the Volcker shock and the 1980 election outcome). The all-time low — 2.97 in July 1953 — came during the early-Eisenhower boom (deflation + 2.6% unemployment). Today's 7.20 is meaningfully below the post-pandemic peak (12.66 in June 2022, driven by 9% inflation) but elevated compared to the 2017–19 average around 6.0. The economy is genuinely less "miserable" than three years ago, but not back to pre-COVID calm.
Related trackers
Other live numbers that move with — or against — this one.
Frequently asked
What this number means, and what it doesn't.
Economist Arthur Okun, an advisor to President Johnson in the 1960s. He proposed it as a way to capture in one number what households actually feel about the economy. The index gained mainstream attention during the 1976 presidential election (Carter used it against Ford) and reached peak political fame in 1980 (Reagan used it against Carter). It's been a campaign-trail staple ever since.
Because both are directly felt by every household. Inflation hits when you check out at the grocery store; unemployment hits when you lose your job or your spouse can't find one. Other indicators (GDP, interest rates, the stock market) feel abstract by comparison. Some economists propose adding mortgage rates or wage stagnation, but the original two-component version is what stuck.
June 1980 — 21.98. Inflation was running at 14.4% YoY and unemployment was at 7.6%. The Volcker Fed responded by jacking interest rates to 20%+, which crushed inflation but pushed unemployment to nearly 11% by 1982 — meaning the Misery Index stayed elevated even as the inflation component fell. The 1980 election was largely decided by this number.
Yes, tightly. Since 1948, when the index is rising in the year before an election, the incumbent party tends to lose. When it's falling, the incumbent party tends to win. The 2024 election was an exception that scholars are still debating — Misery was falling but Trump won, suggesting other factors mattered more that cycle.
Both inputs are monthly economic releases — CPI comes out mid-month, the unemployment rate comes out the first Friday. The Misery Index updates whenever either component does. The number on this page recomputes whenever you refresh CPI or unemployment trackers.
Methodology
Source
Pulled from Derived · CPI + Unemployment and cached on the EvvyTools server.
Update schedule
Refreshed automatically by our cron whenever the upstream source publishes a new value. Historical values are not revised after publication.
How we compute
Display value is the raw published number, unrounded. Comparison stats use the closest available reference date. We never edit the underlying data.