vs Last Quarter
−0.50 pts
Growth slowed from Q4 2025's 2.60% pace.
QoQ Annualized · The Headline Macro Number
U.S. Real GDP Growth
2.10
%
-0.50 pts
vs. prior estimate (0.00%)
Past 8 quarters1.4 – 3.8
vs Year Ago-0.80
5-Yr Avg2.50%
"Potential"~2.0%
Q1 2026 real GDP grew at a 2.10% SAAR pace, below consensus of 2.4% and meaningfully cooler than Q4 2025's 2.60%. Growth is positive but slowing — exactly the data the Fed wants before easing further.
Historical trend
Quarterly SAAR, real GDP.
Source: BEA · A191RL1Q225SBEA
The long view: since 1984
Every recession is a clear notch — and 2020 dwarfs them all.
Peak +35.3% · Q3 2020
Trough −28.1% · Q2 2020
Today +2.10%
How today stacks up
vs Year Ago
−0.80 pts
Down from Q1 2025's 2.90% reading.
5-Year Average
2.50%
Today is 40 bps below the 5-yr mean.
"Potential"
~2.0%
Sustainable long-run rate. We\'re slightly above it.
Use this number
Tools for the macro picture.
About the GDP Growth Rate
U.S. Real GDP Growth is the quarter-over-quarter percent change in inflation-adjusted Gross Domestic Product, expressed as a Seasonally-Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR). It's the broadest measure of U.S. economic output — the total value of all goods and services produced. The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes three estimates for each quarter (advance, second, third) over about three months. Today's 2.10% is the latest advance estimate for Q1 2026.
Why this is the most-watched economic number
GDP captures everything else — consumer spending, business investment, government spending, net exports — in one number. The Fed, financial markets, and the White House watch it as the definitive read on whether the economy is expanding (positive), stagnating (near zero), or contracting (two consecutive negative quarters = recession by convention). Strong GDP supports earnings growth; weak GDP supports rate cuts.
Reading today's number
The COVID period produced two record swings: the −28.1% SAAR low in Q2 2020 (lockdowns) and the +35.3% high in Q3 2020 (reopening). Today's 2.10% is below the post-COVID average of 2.5% and the long-run "potential" of 2.0–2.5%. The economy is growing, but more slowly than a year ago — consistent with the softening labor market and Fed-easing-but-not-cutting-fast stance.
Related trackers
Other live numbers that move with — or against — this one.
Frequently asked
What this number means, and what it doesn't.
The quarterly change gets multiplied by 4 (roughly) to express it as if that pace held for a full year. A 0.5% raw quarterly increase = ~2.0% SAAR. This convention makes quarters comparable to longer-term growth rates. Some countries (UK, EU) report non-annualized quarterly GDP — context matters when comparing.
Advance (1 month after quarter ends): based on partial data. Second (2 months after): more data, often revises by 0.2–0.5 points. Third (3 months after): nearly final, rarely revises by more than 0.1 pt. Annual benchmark revisions (every July) can shift years of history.
The technical "two consecutive negative quarters" definition was breached in Q1+Q2 2022 (both barely negative), but the NBER — the official arbiter — never declared a recession that year. As of Q1 2026, growth is positive and slowing, but no recession criteria are met.
Strong GDP supports corporate earnings → equity gains. Weak GDP increases Fed-cut odds → bond rallies + risk-off equity moves. Sustained sub-1% growth historically precedes equity drawdowns; sustained 3%+ growth has supported bull markets. The current 2.1% sits in the "neither great nor scary" middle zone.
Methodology
Source
Pulled from FRED · A191RL1Q225SBEA and cached on the EvvyTools server.
Update schedule
Refreshed automatically by our cron whenever the upstream source publishes a new value. Historical values are not revised after publication.
How we compute
Display value is the raw published number, unrounded. Comparison stats use the closest available reference date. We never edit the underlying data.