vs Last Week
−0.12 pts
Fed cuts pricing in further.
2-Year Treasury Yield
U.S. Daily Market Close · Fed-Sensitive
3.92%
-0.05 pts vs. yesterday
Past 12 monthsRange 3.85 – 4.85
vs Last Year-0.85
5-Yr Avg3.05%
vs 10Y−0.50
The 2-year has fallen 85 bps over the past year as the Fed begins easing. The yield curve has normalized — 10Y now sits 50 bps above the 2Y after 24 months of inversion.
Historical trend
Daily market close.
Source: FRED · DGS2
The long view: since 1976
Fifty years of short-end Treasury yields.
Peak 16.45% · Sept 1981Trough 0.20% · 2011Today 3.92%
How today stacks up
vs Last Year
−0.85 pts
From 4.77%. The easing cycle in motion.
5-Yr Avg
3.05%
Today 87 bps above the 5-yr mean.
vs 10Y Treasury
−0.50 pts
Curve normalized — short below long.
Use this yield
Tools driven by short-end rates.
About the 2-Year Treasury Yield
The 2-year Treasury is the most important short-end rate in the U.S. bond market. Because of its short duration, the 2-year tracks Fed policy expectations more tightly than any other Treasury — when traders expect cuts, the 2-year falls fast; when they expect hikes, it spikes. It's the rate financial pros watch most closely during Fed meeting weeks.
Why the 2-year drives the "yield curve"
The famous "yield curve" used to predict recessions is the spread between the 10-year and the 2-year Treasury (T10Y2Y). When the 2-year exceeds the 10-year (an "inverted" curve), it signals that markets expect aggressive Fed cuts — which has historically preceded every U.S. recession since 1955. The curve inverted in July 2022 and stayed inverted for over two years before normalizing in mid-2024.
Reading this chart
Today's 3.92% is well below the cycle peak of 5.22% in October 2023 and reflects the market pricing in continued Fed cuts. The 2-year has fallen 85 bps over the past year as the easing cycle began. The all-time high was 16.45% in September 1981 — the Volcker era.
Related trackers
Other live numbers that move with — or against — this one.
Frequently asked
What this number means, and what it doesn't.
The 2-year is essentially a "weighted average of expected Fed funds rates over the next 2 years." When traders shift their expectations for upcoming Fed moves, the 2-year prices in those changes immediately — often before any official Fed action.
When short-term yields (like the 2-year) exceed long-term yields (like the 10-year), the curve is inverted. It signals that markets expect rates to fall — often because they expect a recession.
Yes — at auction via TreasuryDirect.gov (no fees, $100 minimum) or via your brokerage. They're sold at auction every 4 weeks. Many investors use them as a "ladder" — buy a new 2-year every quarter for steady maturities and reinvestment opportunities.
Closely. Money market funds and CDs in the 3-month to 2-year range track this yield within a few basis points. When the 2-year falls, your HYSA and CD yields follow within weeks.
Methodology
Source
Pulled from FRED · DGS2 and cached on the EvvyTools server.
Update schedule
Refreshed automatically by our cron whenever the upstream source publishes a new value. Historical values are not revised after publication.
How we compute
Display value is the raw published number, unrounded. Comparison stats use the closest available reference date. We never edit the underlying data.